The Honest Hypocrite: Simulating the winner of the 2015 Superbowl

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Wednesday, 27 January 2010

Who will win Playoff Fantasy Football Pool?

Posted on 09:09 by kajal singh
My clever analysis and modeling of this years football playoffs has yielded a roster (RDK1) that is in fifth place in the RKB Playoff fantasy football results as of the NFC and AFC Championship games. With only the Superbowl to go, the question is, "Will the RDK1 roster be in the money at the end of the playoffs?"

The chart above (click the chart for larger) shows the standings as they are right now, after the conference championship games. The y- axis is total points while the x axis is the name of each of the rosters. The colors represent contributions from each week of games, Red for the wild card week, blue for the divisional week and green for the conference championship week.

Disregarding the two lowest results, the Wild card and Divisional weeks yield anywhere from 65 to 30 points in a roster. A roster can also have a great wild card week and still lose, because your players have to generate points each week and that only happens if their team progresses. Which of these rosters will win, will it be Cara H. in the lead with 119 points?

The above plot is the same data and roster, this time sorted first by the number of players a roster has out, and then by the total points. This chart is very telling because the rosters to the left with no players out or few players out have much more points potential than roster to the left with more players out. The last grouping with all nine players out on their rosters is the most pathological example; they have all the points they are going to get. Tim G 2 with a respectable 101 points is still not in the running. By the way, the RDK1 roster only has 3 players out, and since I still have my quarterback, kicker, and defense.

Taking the starting chart and plotting the contributions from each player position to the total shows the importance of the the positions to a successful roster. The colors in the chart above represent points from a particular position, green for quarterback (QB), yellow for the wide receivers (WR), orange for running backs (RB), red for kicker (K), purple for defense (DEF), and blue for tight end (TE). The greater contribution positions are at the bottom and build up to the total number of points.

QB is the most important, and while RB and WR also contribute as much, realize that there are three WR's and two RB's per roster so the contribution above should be halved for RB or divided by three for the WR's. As an individual player the kicker contributes a fair amount of points, almost always one for each touchdown, and then field goals as well. In this league the DEF gets the special teams points if kickoffs or punts are returned for touchdowns, as well as a point for each turnover after there are three. Finally tight ends rarely receive passes in comparison to wide receivers and their contributions are the smallest.

Above is the leader grid (click for larger) with the top twenty team rosters and with only the players that are left to play in the Superbowl. A grayed out square indicates that that roster doesn't have the player, numbers are the accumulated points for a given player in that roster. The grand total is the total for each roster, and the rank is as of now. The red highlight is first, and green is second, yellow are the rest of the top ten. I included the top twenty because I have evidence that one of them can come in first, though it would be very unlikely (less than one in a thousand)

What combination of player results does RDK1 need to be in the money (70% first or 30% second place, a tie for first divides the money and there is no second, a tie for second with one first divides the second place money), and what is the chance that such an outcome will occur? That is the topic for the next analysis.
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to XShare to Facebook
Posted in fantasy football, modeling, playoff, simulations, statistics | No comments
Newer Post Older Post Home

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Captains of the Axiom from WALL-E
    Captain Reardon 2105-2248 143 years Captain Fee 2248-2379 131 years Captain Thompson 2380-2520 140 years Captain Brace 2521-26...
  • Recreating Laffer's unemployment benefits payout vs. unemployment rate chart but not his ridiculous conclusions
    Howard points to an excellent refutation of the ridiculous claims by Laffe r that unemployment benefits drive unemployment. The chart fro...
  • Snow yesterday was fluffy
    The picture of the creek was taken while the snow was still falling. There was 5" on the pathway at 5pm yesterday. Amounts ranged up t...
  • Employment-Population Ratio - a scarier way to look at unemployment
    The Bureau of labor Statistics compiles a stat called the Employment-Population Ratio that is the number of people working of the available...
  • Tradescantia Blooming
    Just when you think a flower has washed away in the floods, or burned away in the droughts, or withered due to benighted neglect, they come ...
  • Wesley Snipes fan in Delaware
    Could this person be such a fan of Wesley Snipes that they have a BLADE II license plate to commemorate their favorite movie? Is there a co...
  • Autographed hot dog buns at Tony Packo's Cafe in Toldeo
    Tony Packo's Cafe in Toledo is world famous for it's "Hungarian hot dogs", which are really just hot dogs with a deliciou...
  • Oscar Meyer Wienermobile in Wilmington today
    The Oscar Meyer Wienermobile was at the Acme at Rt202 and Rt 141  north of Wilmington today. They let us go inside it.  I like the custom Wi...
  • My new band and its debut album
    Reddit has a make your own band and first album with artwork generator much like the one that I have done before . It's been so long si...
  • Focus not on the Rapture but on loving others.
    A Roman Catholic priest gives the right answer when asked , "How does the Rapture figure into your faith?" ...Essentially all of t...

Categories

  • 80's TV shows
  • 9
  • A-team
  • accident
  • actors
  • aircraft
  • airplane
  • allium
  • alphabet
  • aluminum
  • animals
  • anniversary
  • Apollo 11
  • art
  • astronauts
  • astronomy
  • auction
  • Baltimore Orioles
  • baptisia
  • baptist
  • Baseball
  • bathroom
  • bathroom remodel
  • Battlestar galacta
  • bee
  • Bensi
  • bicycle
  • biden
  • biology
  • bird watching
  • blogs
  • Blue Heron
  • books
  • Boxing Day
  • brachiopod
  • broadband
  • BSG
  • Caddyshack
  • calendar
  • cancer
  • car
  • carriages
  • cars
  • cartoons
  • caterpillar
  • charts
  • chemistry
  • cherry trees
  • Chicago
  • chicken
  • children
  • Chrysler auto plant
  • cigar
  • cigar rolling
  • cinema
  • clouds
  • color
  • comics
  • commentary
  • coprology
  • creationist
  • croatian
  • cuba
  • cucumber
  • curling
  • curveball
  • daffodils
  • data presentation
  • Dealware
  • Delaware
  • deldot
  • DeLorean
  • design
  • Detroit Tigers
  • dinner
  • drilling
  • Dupont Country Club
  • Easter Island
  • eclipse
  • economics
  • el lector
  • electric
  • elements
  • Escanaba
  • evolution
  • experiment
  • explosion
  • face blindness
  • fantasy football
  • father's day
  • fayette
  • ferns
  • fireworks
  • flash mob
  • flashlight
  • flooding
  • flowers
  • flowrate
  • flu
  • fluid mechnics
  • fossil
  • fox
  • fragrance
  • frog
  • frost
  • fun
  • funeral
  • furniture
  • games
  • garden
  • gardening
  • generations
  • generator
  • genetics
  • Ghostbusters
  • gifts
  • glass tile
  • golf
  • government
  • graffiti
  • graph
  • graphing
  • great egret
  • greenville
  • groundhog
  • groundhog's day
  • Guerrilla Drive In
  • H1N1
  • hard drive
  • health care
  • histograms
  • history
  • home maintenance
  • horses
  • hubris
  • ideas
  • IHM
  • Immaculate Heart of Mary
  • Incredible Hulk
  • Independence day
  • internet
  • ipod touch
  • iris
  • IRS
  • joe-pie weed
  • juniper
  • junk
  • Key West
  • knowledge
  • labor
  • Lake Michigan
  • language
  • LCROSS
  • lego
  • license plate
  • lily of the valley
  • Lincoln Park Zoo
  • linguistics
  • lobster
  • logging
  • love
  • lunar eclipse
  • magnolia
  • manhole
  • maps
  • March Madness
  • marching band
  • marketing
  • math
  • measurement
  • memory
  • meta
  • meterology
  • military records
  • modeling
  • modelling
  • models
  • Monarch Butterfly
  • monster truck
  • monte carlo
  • moon
  • mosaic
  • mountain
  • mountain ash
  • mouse
  • movie
  • movies
  • museum
  • names
  • NASA
  • NASA Wallops space
  • National Park
  • NCAA Basketball
  • network
  • New Castle County
  • NFL
  • NOAA
  • nodes
  • Norristown
  • Northern Water Snake
  • Northern Water Snake.
  • obama
  • panorama
  • parenting
  • parking
  • pencil
  • pennsylvania
  • peonies
  • personality
  • philadelphia
  • phillies
  • philosophy
  • pi
  • picture
  • pictures
  • Pillsbury Doughboy
  • Pittsburgh
  • playoff
  • Point to Point
  • polar bear
  • politics
  • preparation
  • president
  • probability
  • progress
  • prosopagnosia
  • psychology
  • Quantum Leap
  • quiz
  • raccoon
  • rain
  • reader
  • refinery
  • religion
  • remodeling
  • restaurants
  • review
  • reviews
  • robotic groundhog
  • robots
  • rock
  • rocket launch
  • rotisserie
  • Sagarin
  • satellites
  • saw mill
  • scat
  • Science
  • Science Fiction
  • scifi
  • screaming yellow
  • sculpture
  • separated at birth
  • Septa
  • sf
  • shellpot creek
  • signs
  • Simpsons
  • simulations
  • slime mold
  • slug
  • snakes
  • snow
  • snow chairs
  • soccer
  • solar eclipse
  • space
  • speed test
  • spider
  • spring
  • Spring Beauty
  • stars
  • State fair
  • statistics
  • storage
  • strawberries
  • sun
  • survival
  • t-shirt
  • tableau
  • taxes economics statistics sussex delaware
  • technology
  • television
  • terminator
  • test
  • tetris
  • time
  • time travel
  • titles
  • toad lily
  • tomato
  • traffic cams
  • transpass
  • travel
  • trees
  • trivia
  • truck
  • tuba
  • Tufte
  • tulips
  • tunnel
  • turnpike
  • twitter
  • unemployment
  • university
  • UP State Fair
  • urinal
  • V
  • vaccination
  • Verizon FIOS
  • video
  • Virginia
  • visualization
  • vocabulary
  • WALL-E
  • Wallops
  • Walt Disney World
  • war on children
  • weather
  • website
  • white heron
  • wikipedia
  • wilmginton
  • Wilmington
  • wine
  • winter solstice
  • Winterthur
  • wood
  • zoo

Blog Archive

  • ►  2015 (2)
    • ►  January (2)
  • ►  2014 (77)
    • ►  December (1)
    • ►  November (1)
    • ►  September (4)
    • ►  August (9)
    • ►  July (20)
    • ►  June (14)
    • ►  May (3)
    • ►  April (8)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (5)
    • ►  January (7)
  • ►  2013 (30)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (5)
    • ►  September (3)
    • ►  August (3)
    • ►  June (2)
    • ►  May (4)
    • ►  April (3)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (4)
    • ►  January (1)
  • ►  2012 (41)
    • ►  November (5)
    • ►  October (4)
    • ►  September (3)
    • ►  August (1)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (9)
    • ►  May (3)
    • ►  April (3)
    • ►  March (4)
    • ►  February (1)
    • ►  January (4)
  • ►  2011 (82)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (4)
    • ►  October (1)
    • ►  September (5)
    • ►  August (7)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (5)
    • ►  May (8)
    • ►  April (15)
    • ►  March (9)
    • ►  February (6)
    • ►  January (15)
  • ▼  2010 (129)
    • ►  December (6)
    • ►  November (2)
    • ►  October (3)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (15)
    • ►  July (20)
    • ►  June (8)
    • ►  May (7)
    • ►  April (15)
    • ►  March (10)
    • ►  February (22)
    • ▼  January (15)
      • 18% Simulated Chance of winning money in the Playo...
      • Who will win Playoff Fantasy Football Pool?
      • Cartoon about taxes by Rube Goldberg
      • Cajuns in PA? GEAUKRT license plate.
      • What military aircraft are you? Quiz.
      • University of Delaware auctions off former Chrysle...
      • Playoff Fantasy football arises again
      • Vice President Biden and President Obama in my nei...
      • If Obsession (with a new idea, book, author...) is...
      • That old tuba argument again
      • Aspiring to Tuftian perfection - presenting data
      • Cable Connector Quiz
      • Water burbling under the ice on Shellpot Creek
      • Shellpot Creek water fall not quite frozen yet
      • Happy New Year
  • ►  2009 (139)
    • ►  December (11)
    • ►  November (9)
    • ►  October (15)
    • ►  September (19)
    • ►  August (14)
    • ►  July (28)
    • ►  June (22)
    • ►  May (21)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

kajal singh
View my complete profile