The continuous freezing temperatures through night and day have left the creek in as frozen a condition as it has been in recent years.
I think this is as far as it will get for this cold snap.
Thursday, 9 January 2014
Friday, 3 January 2014
Thursday, 2 January 2014
“Social Security is not driving our deficit,” the senator continued. “Social Security is a system that pays for itself. If we did absolutely nothing to Social Security, we would make payments for more than 20 years exactly at this level. And then they would drop by roughly by about 25 percent and pay forever into the future…
Found here.
Found here.
Wednesday, 1 January 2014
Although RKB fantasy playoff football is on hiatus this year, that doesn't mean we can't still have some fun simulating the potential outcomes. As in other years I have used the Sagarin ratings, assuming the standard deviations of the spreads is 13.89 and the pure points home advantage is 4.2 points. The results are shown below.
As you may have guessed from their performance this year, Denver plays Seattle in the Superbowl 31% of the time. Denver plays somebody 51% of the time, while Seattle plays somebody 58% of the time. It's probably a good idea to have some of those players in a fantasy roster.
The figure below shows the number of games that the teams play, this would be the multiplicative factor on a play chosen to be on a roster.
KAN, SD, PHI and GB play only one game, they lose the first game they play, more than 60% of the time, so you likely won't get much mileage out of those players on your roster.
Finally some alternate views of the Superbowl outcomes. Do these give you a better idea of the relative probabilities?
Colors to tell whether AFC or NFC wins, sorted by winner color.
Colors to tell whether AFC or NFC wins, sorted by AFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by AFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by NFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by SB winner.
Football awaits.
As you may have guessed from their performance this year, Denver plays Seattle in the Superbowl 31% of the time. Denver plays somebody 51% of the time, while Seattle plays somebody 58% of the time. It's probably a good idea to have some of those players in a fantasy roster.
The figure below shows the number of games that the teams play, this would be the multiplicative factor on a play chosen to be on a roster.
KAN, SD, PHI and GB play only one game, they lose the first game they play, more than 60% of the time, so you likely won't get much mileage out of those players on your roster.
Finally some alternate views of the Superbowl outcomes. Do these give you a better idea of the relative probabilities?
Colors to tell whether AFC or NFC wins, sorted by winner color.
Colors to tell whether AFC or NFC wins, sorted by AFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by AFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by NFC.
Colors to tell whether what team wins the Superbowl, sorted by SB winner.
Football awaits.
Friday, 13 December 2013
I let this genetic algorithm run a few nights in a row to breed the "fittest" car for this course. The difference between two nights isn't as dramatic as from the beginning. The cars started pretty squat and then turned out spiky, and then rearranged he spikes a little. I think that the spikes help when the cars tumble to let them right themselves again. It may also have to do with weight distribution.
3402 generations in human terms is about 85,000 years, so these cars have gone from hunter gatherers living in caves to spaceflight. Although really they have just gotten pretty successful at running this course. The best performance ever was around 1000 generations and they have just been spinning wheels since then.
3402 generations in human terms is about 85,000 years, so these cars have gone from hunter gatherers living in caves to spaceflight. Although really they have just gotten pretty successful at running this course. The best performance ever was around 1000 generations and they have just been spinning wheels since then.
Monday, 9 December 2013
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