The Honest Hypocrite: Simulating the winner of the 2015 Superbowl

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Saturday, 2 February 2013

Surprise alternate endings to Groundhog Day

Posted on 16:00 by kajal singh
It is well known that I love the movie Groundhog Day.  Here are some surprise endings you never would have expected.

---

Camera pulls back revealing Phil in a coma from the traffic accident when he tried to leave Punxitawney during his misforecast snowstorm.  Rita bites back tears as she reads a book of 19th century French poetry to him hoping that eventually he will awaken.

---

The view dissolves into green Matrix style lettering as Rita (codenamed Winter) and Larry (codenamed Eyeball) disconnect Phil (codenamed Groundhog) from the Matrix, pulling the long black connector from the back of his head.  They tell him he's been caught in a glitch in the Matrix and they freed him but they have to get moving because the Sentinels are coming.

----

After Phil falls asleep a crowd of roadies rush in to reset everything for the next day.  A montage reveals activity all over Punxetawney as the crew resets television's most popular reality show for 10 years, "Groundhog's Day" whose centerpiece is a kidnapped, completely unaware weatherman from Pittsburgh, forced to repeat the same day over and over.

---

Al appears to tell Sam (as Phil) that something is wrong with the leap and that Gushi doesn't know what's wrong.  No matter how many things Sam (as Phil) does in Punxetawney he doesn't seem to put the things right that once went wrong and leap out of there. He just leaps to the same day.  Sam's (as Phil) Swiss cheese memory means he doesn't remember who he really is just the repeating days.

---

On the last day the view switches to the groundhog himself who finally sees his shadow, rescues a little girl from a burning house, leads home a lost little boy, finally woos the girl groundhog he loves and unites the community of woodland creatures in the meadows outside of town.  It was the groundhog repeating the days over and over again until he learned to be a better groundhog, Phil the weatherman was just caught in the psychic backlash.

----

Happy Groundhog's Day!

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Tuesday, 1 January 2013

Predicting the outcome of the NFL playoffs

Posted on 16:13 by kajal singh
It's the time of the year to power up the simulations and attempt to predict the course of the NFL playoffs.  As in year's past I have used the Sagarin ratings and a standard deviation of about two touchdowns to build a monte carlo simulation of the playoff games.  The results are shown in the plot below.

On the AFC side, Denver and New England are the most likely teams to make it to the Superbowl at 44% and 41%, while the other teams are also-rans and make up the last 20% or so of simulations.  The AFC is more spread out.  With San Francisco, Atlanta at 37% and 28%, with Seattle and Green bay picking up some more of the possibilities at 17% and 11%.

Since the goal of this simulation is to try to win the RKB playoff fantasy football pool we also care about how many games each team plays and what players score the most points.  The plot below shows the number of games each team plays in the playoffs, teams with a bye can only play a maximum of three teams, the others can play four if they make it to the final game.  The top plot is the simulation, compared to the bottom plot where the win probabilities are strictly 50/50.


MIN, WAS, CIN and IND have a disproportionate chance of losing there first playoff game so players from those teams will only have a single game to earn points.  One team with a bye, Seattle, seems to hold its own and play through to the Superbowl a good number of times, and certainly high scoring players from that team will have two or three games worth of chances to score points.  As reflected in the pie charts above, NE and DEN play three games in many simulations.

Next step picking the right players given the expectations of which teams will play.

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Saturday, 24 November 2012

The World's Greatest Chrysanthemums

Posted on 09:57 by kajal singh
On the Sunday before Thanksgiving we saw the end of the Chrysanthemum festival at Longwood Gardens. 


That is more than 1000 chrysanthemums trained into this globe shape.  They said they make two of them each year just in case.  It takes 17 months to grow it.


It was at the entrance to the gardens.


 I snuck in a picture of this bird of paradise, they are always in such perfect shape.







Obviously my favorite ones were purple.
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Friday, 23 November 2012

Egyptian artifacts and mummies at the University of Pennsylvania

Posted on 13:40 by kajal singh

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Mayan Artifacts at the University of Pennsylvania

Posted on 10:42 by kajal singh

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Friday, 16 November 2012

As red as they get

Posted on 11:24 by kajal singh
The japanese maple is at or just past it's most red and glorious this fall.  I don't think it can get any redder from now it may be time to lose its leaves.  I love the red of this tree, it's practically purple (or wine or burgundy or cordovan...).

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Latest Irises ever

Posted on 05:14 by kajal singh
Lynn rescued these Irises that had started budding in the Fall and we definitely not going to finish in time with the weather we are having.



She cut them and put them in water indoors and these are the second and third blooms.  I like having a memory of Spring as winter begins.

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kajal singh
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