It's the time of the year to power up the simulations and attempt to predict the course of the NFL playoffs. As in year's past I have used the Sagarin ratings and a standard deviation of about two touchdowns to build a monte carlo simulation of the playoff games. The results are shown in the plot below.On the AFC side, Denver and New England are the most likely teams to make it to the Superbowl at 44% and 41%, while the other...
