Clearing out the book lists - both sets probably go in the Books I've read sometime in the past pile now, except for How to Ditch Your Fairy. Didn't get to that one yet.Books I'm Currently Reading Shakespeare The World as Stage by Bill BrysonThe Graveyard Book by Neil GaimanZoe's Tale by John ScalziInterface by Neal StephensonHow to Ditch Your Fairy by Justine LarbalestierBooks I've Just read Nation by Terry PratchettImplied Spaces by Walter Jon WilliamsIncandescence by Greg EganThe Wordy Shipmates by Sarah VowellAnathem by Neal StephensonBrasyl...
Monday, 31 January 2011
Thursday, 27 January 2011
I thought that we wouldn't have a repeat of last year's heavy snow which broke many limbs on several holly bushes and a juniper tree, all of which eventually got cut down and went into the fire.This year the snow is breaking the other juniper.That limb on the ground used to be attached at the top and point straight up. It seems to have taken out to other limbs on its way down.A closeup of the damage shows the broken top, another limb missing halfway...
There has been a lot of complaint that the weather forecasters missed the call on this recent storm. It started yesterday when we awoke to 4 inches of snow that was twice what anybody expected and was still snowing when we all thought it would turn to rain.We had in sequence - snow, cloudy skies, rain, ice pellets and lots of snow again. My pictures begin in the middle with the measurement of last night's snow, which was the second wave. About...
Wednesday, 19 January 2011
Just trying to see if I can embed the Deldot Traffic Cams pictures in a blog post. It looks successful to me. These will not update automatically, just refresh the browser to see them update. I chose cameras that are roughly on my way to and from work.Traffic cam Rt 141 and EX stat., Cam 60Traffic cam Rt 141 and 100, Cam 88Traffic cam Rt 141 and Rt 48, Cam 76Traffic cam Rt202 and Silverside, Cam 49Traffic cam Rt202 and Rt 92, Cam 48Traffic cam...
Sunday, 16 January 2011
After today's unexpected loss of NE to the NYJ a lot of clarity was brought to the RKB playoff fantasy football pool predictions. Firstly the model probabilities for the SB matchup and winners.The most likely outcome and matchup is PIT playing GB in the superbowl and GB winning. Because many rosters in the playoff pool had NE players a large number of potential winning rosters (including my own) were wiped out and have no chance of winning. Also,...
Saturday, 15 January 2011
The purpose of the fantasy football playoff roster simulation is to search all of the possible combinations of player rosters for the one roster that has the highest chance of beating the other rosters. To do this I have first simulated the expected outcomes of the playoff games using Sagarin ratings. I also collect the expected performance of each player in each given game from available data about their performance this year. Combing the two...
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Before the NFL Wild Card week the Playoff fantasy football simulations showed the likely matchups were either NE or PIT vs. either ATL, CHI or GB with NO and PHI more distant possibilities on the NFC side and BAL, NYJ and IND as even more distant possibilities on the AFC side. A NE win of the superbowl vs. many different opponents figured high in the probabilities. The chart looked like this (click below for larger):Now that the wild card games...
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
Friday, 7 January 2011
The first snowfall of the year in Delaware puts more than 2 inches of snow on the ground. Here is a measurement showing 2.5 inches. Use the right hand side of the ruler for measuring, this is a measuring square and the left hand side starts at the top of the "L" part of it. Because it happened at night and into this morning and it wasn't expected to be much there hasn't been any plowing on our street or the streets in the neighborhood around us....
Thursday, 6 January 2011
I took the odds of a given team winning the superbowl from Yahoo Futures for comparison with my simulation results. My results are in red below.I match pretty well with 5dimes.com and SBGGlobal, but bodog looks too flat and I don't know what Sportsbook was thinking with the high probability for the New York Jets.The agreement with some of the professionals lends some credibility to the results of my simulations and the roster decisions I will make...
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
I am struggling to find the best way to present the data from my simulations of the football playoffs. The key to picking a good roster is to figuring out which teams play multiple games in the playoffs, essentially the ones that make it to the Superbowl. Thus I compiled 10,000 simulations of the playoffs and then determined who the AFC and NFC champions would be that would meet in the Superbowl and who the winner of that game would be. The pie...
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Rather than the bar charts from earlier I used Tableau to create pie charts showing the fraction of simulations in which a team wins the Superbowl as a function of the home advantage and the standard deviation of the normal distribution dividing the spread. (click the chart for larger).Does this show better the expectation that New England would win assuming the straight Sagarin ratings determine the winner of each game? The stdev equal to 0.001...
Monday, 3 January 2011
I am currently crunching the numbers for this year's Playoff Fantasy Football Pool. Using the Sagarin ratings and the formula discussed earlier, I have randomly simulated this year's playoffs many times to determine who will win the Superbowl. This year New England seems to be the favorite to win if we just assume wins based on the ratings. Even if we use 13.92 as the standard deviation and the spread and a normal distribution to calculated the...
Sunday, 2 January 2011
It's NFL playoff time again. I am in the process of redoing my playoff football model to more accurately reflect the probability of a given team to win a game based on the spread or the Sagarin rating difference.Stern wrote a paper called "On the Probability of Winning a Football Game" (1991) in which he collected the final scores and the spreads from 1981, 1932, 1984 to determine the relationship between the two. He found that the final score...
Saturday, 1 January 2011
Seems appropriate to point out that the dates for this year have as much scope for binaryness as for last year.Today is 1/1/11 or 01/01/11 if you like.In ten days it will be 1/11/11, or 01/11/11.And, please remind me, our 5th anniversary this year will be on 11/11/11.I leave the other interesting dates, binaries with zero, for instance, and other numerical coincidences as an exercise for the reader.Bonus: this year there will be a 9/10/...
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